happy together

北京时间5月16日凌晨4点左右，俄罗斯总统普京抵达北京。    The CAS held the first of two planned hearings of the Football Union of Russia and club teams’ appeal of a FIFA/UEFA ban from UEFA competition on Tuesday.,Tuesday’s hearing, taking place in Lausanne, Switzerland, will be followed by a second hearing next Monday by four Russian clubs, including Zenit St. Petersburg, the reigning Russian Premier League champions, challenging their exclusion from UEFA competition.,UEFA ruled in May to bar Russian football clubs from all tournaments, including men’s teams and the women’s team for the FIFA Women’s World Cup 2023. At least for the remainder of the current season, Russian teams have been banned from the UEFA Champions League, Europa League, Europa Conference League, Women’s Champions League, and Youth League. The Russian bid to host the Euro 2028 and/or Euro 2032 events has also been preemptively rejected.,In arbitration filed in March, the Football Union of Russia demanded the immediate reinstatement of all teams for competition, arguing the “irreparable harm” that their exclusion would have on tournaments, including the FIFA World Cup, potential sponsorship losses, loss of experience, and loss of opportunity to compete against opponents of high standard. The Russian side also stressed that for players 30 years old or older, the 2022 World Cup constituted “the last chance of their career to play such a tournament.”,Former Formula One Boss Ecclestone Backs Putin Over Conflict With Ukraine30 June, 12:39 GMT,The football union argued that the International Olympic Committee resolution issued in February demanding that Russian athletes and officials be barred from international competition on which FIFA and UEFA based their decisions was “generic,” “does not refer to any legal provision and is not binding upon FIFA,” and that sporting authorities were acting in a “discriminatory” manner by barring Russian players.,FIFA argued that Russian teams’ presence or absence in the World Cup and the Women’s World Cup was “not guaranteed,” and dismissed the fact that some players would miss out on their last chance for their World Cup play as “irrelevant.” Furthermore, the association argued that “pursuant to CAS jurisprudence, private sports associations have a wide autonomy and margin of discretion when deciding on matters related to the competitions which they organize.” The CAS sided with FIFA and UEFA and rejected Russia’s cases in April, prompting FUR to appeal.,US Hybrid War Against Russia,Rick Sterling, a California-based investigative journalist who has written extensively on doping in sports, said he finds it unlikely that the CAS will rule in Russia's favor despite its case's "excellent arguments," among them the idea that you don't punish athletes for the actions of their nations.,"The US invaded Iraq and there was no denunciation let alone a punishment of athletes. The US, France and others overthrew the Libyan government, leaving a destroyed state, without criticism from the IOC or FIFA. So why are the Russian athletes being punished? One reason is because of built-in bias and prejudice. The IOC and FIFA are dominated by the West. It is very damaging that the IOC issued a recommendation that Russian athletes be discriminated against. This is a violation of the Olympic Charter against national discrimination," Sterling says.,"The US is openly and actively working to undermine Russia's image abroad, including in sports. They probably pre-coordinated the response to the special operation. Russian athletes are victims of the US hybrid war against Russia, as are Ukrainians and Russians," the journalist believes.,Football isn’t the only sport to have suffered from politicized bans instituted by world and national sporting authorities in the wake of the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, with tennis, basketball, hockey, skating and skiing competitions also affected. The arbitrary nature of the prohibitions has been exemplified by their random nature, with Russian athletes barred from FIFA play, for example, but allowed to compete in the 2022 Winter Paralympics, and at the US Open tennis tournament.,Top Tennis Stars in Favour of Penalising Wimbledon Over Ban on Russian Players, Report Says11 May, 11:40 GMT,The bans affecting Russia’s football players are just the latest instance of discrimination against the country’s athletes by international sporting bodies in recent years. In 2020, the CAS stripped Russia of its right to use its name, flag, and anthem at the Olympics and world championship events for two years, largely on the basis of the testimony of Grigory Rodchenkov, the former director of the Russian Anti-Doping Center laboratory-turned-informant to the World Anti-Doping who fled to the United States and testified about an alleged Russian “state-run doping program.” Russian officials denied the allegations and accused Rodchenkov of altering doping probe data of Russian athletes to fit the required narrative.。

B | 根据新华社发出的通稿，今天上午，中国领导人已经与普京举行了会谈。

接下来，我将从宏观、地缘、战略的大格局出发，分析中国与俄罗斯的综合关系未来走向。

C |

此外，我也会从微观的角度，解构最近的中美、中欧、中俄、俄罗斯和西方关系。因为除了大的宏观格局，其中一些微观的内容也值得分析，甚至我也可以说说有些微妙的地方。

北京和莫斯科的时间相差5个小时，北京时间凌晨4点对应的是莫斯科时间昨晚11点，加上飞机从莫斯科到北京的几个小时航程，说明普京昨天下班后就直接去赶飞机了，行程非常繁忙。

普京今日凌晨4点抵达北京，我原本预估他上午会稍作休息，下午才开始正式的官式行程，但没想到他今天上午就和中国领导人见面了。

换句话说，他在飞机上休息了几个小时，下飞机之后再休整一两个小时之后，就开始了一天繁忙的工作行程。

今天上午，中俄双方领导人已经见面了，那么从今天下午开始，可能会展开一系列有关外交、军事、科技、企业、地方等各个部门的磋商，并签署一系列协议。所有的这些，加起来也就三个“半天”的时间，明天工作日结束后，普京将返回俄罗斯。

大家都知道，这是普京第五任期后的首次出访。而在不久前，普京还刚刚任命了新的内阁，其中尤其引人关注的是国防部长的任命，新国防部长并非军人出身，而是一个经济学家。这说明了普京的第五任期，有一个很缜密的战略部署。

当然，中国领导人也是日理万机，前不久才刚刚结束对欧洲三国的访问。这三个国家都是与中国相对友好的国家，中国领导人的欧洲之行也是为了拓展欧洲的战略空间，体现了对欧洲的重视。

现在世界上其他势力都希望中俄关系出现缝隙 ，但是要想中俄关系因出现缝隙而出现分裂，这恐怕在相当长的一段时间内是难以想象的，因为这不是中俄之间双方是否愿意接近的问题，而是必须要接近的问题。

坦率来讲，从三十多年前冷战结束到现在，中俄关系一直如此。现在后冷战时代已经结束，一个新的冷战或准冷战时代开始了。因此，我们可以用一个不太恰当的比喻来形容中俄关系，那就是中俄关系就像美欧关系一样。

美国和欧洲的关系完全没有缝隙吗？这是不可能的，欧洲有自己的利益，美国也有自己的想法，美国对欧洲在施加压力，欧洲对美国也在施加压力，尤其最近几年。

但是，美欧之间从整体的，无论是意识形态还是战略利益，还是在二战结束之后的世界格局当中，他们都是很紧密的，未来中俄关系在大的方面上也是如此。

这就是中国所说的，我们不是盟友，但胜似盟友，而且中俄会在全球各种事务中加强统一协调，中俄关系是全方位的战略协作伙伴关系。

普京之所以在第五任期开始之后，便急急忙忙地首访中国，肯定是对中国有所求。

但是我们不说经济援助，因为里面有很多不同的分类，有的是商业意义上的，有的是战略支持上的，以及经济上的支持。

俄罗斯把国防部长换成了一个经济学家出身的前副总理，也是出于这方面考虑。

坦率来讲，这不仅是朋友之间战略上的互相支持，也是在商言商。

F | 当然，中国和俄罗斯在价格方面也有很多要谈的地方。

G | 因此，后面三个“半天”，各个部门、企业、地方都会谈具体的事情。

那么除了俄罗斯有所求，中国对俄罗斯当然也有所关心和需求。

H |

未来20年到30年，甚至50年，如果世界格局稳定的话，中俄可能会出现分家，这与中俄之间是否喜欢对方没有直接关系，甚至没有间接关系，这是势在必然，是本世纪上半叶的地缘战略格局使然。

坦率来讲，中国民间对俄罗斯的信任度和安全感还是不够的，我们以前常说中俄关系“上热下冷、政热经冷、老热青冷”，现在这个基本特征依然存在，所以中国方面也希望从俄罗斯方面得到保障。

坦率来讲，俄乌战争对中国来说是一个双刃剑，这个问题涉及到中国的外部环境、战略环境以及中国的经济环境。

我们常说，中国已经具备了天时、地利和人和，中国过去四十多年的发展之所以很快，主要是因为天时，其次是地利和人和，但现在中国面临的最大问题不是地利和人和，而是天时。

在这个过程中，中俄关系、中美关系以及中西关系处得怎么样，对中国的这个“天时”外部环境有很大的关系。

所以，中国方面希望从普京那里听到他的真实想法和战略，以便我们能够早做准备。

第三，中国希望拥有一个和平长久发展的外部环境。所以哪怕西方对中国竭尽全力地打压，但中国依然对世界敞开大门，无论是签证还是其他方面的都是如此。

前段时间，中国领导人出访欧洲三国，有人说这是为了离间西方，但我不这么认为。因为这三个国家也有自己的利益，尤其是法国，我们是在平等的基础之上，在独立的外交的基础之上发展双边关系的。

但是法国对中国也有要求，毕竟他是西方的一份子，所以法国也要求中国减少对俄罗斯的援助，尤其是在双重用途方面，即军用和民用方面，减少对俄罗斯的支持。

I |

这对中国来说是一个难题，因为西方人不讲道理。但是，如果中国不满足他们的要求，或者部分回应他们的要求，那就意味着即便是西欧国家中最靠近中国的法国、甚至德国，也会更加紧密地靠向美国这一边。

J |

所以欧洲有欧洲的诉求、中国有中国的诉求、俄罗斯也有俄罗斯的诉求，我们未来与俄罗斯正常的经贸关系，相当一部分是被西方称之为双重用途的，那么该如何发展？这无疑是个难啃的骨头。

K |