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Will Bibi be Back? Netanyahu Braces for 'Aggressive Campaign' as Israeli Government Collapses_我的网站

一 |     Israel officially launched its election season last week, with parties competing for 120 seats at the Israeli parliament ̶ the Knesset. The elections are expected to take place on 1 November, and Israeli media polls are already releasing their projections for the upcoming race.,A Comeback for Netanyahu,Ex-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is leading the latest polls. His Likud Party is projected to grab 34 seats in the chamber, four more than the March 2021 elections. Other surveys predict that he may win even more spots. Aviv Bushinsky, who served as Netanyahu’s media advisor, explained that there is an "80 percent chance" his former boss will soon be making a comeback.,Arab-Israeli Community Ready to Stand Up Against Netanyahu as They Prepare for His Return1 July, 05:23 GMT,Bushinsky claimed that the policies of the Naftali Bennett government help Netanyahu’s popularity, despite his ongoing trial in which he is accused of bribery, fraud and breach of trust.,"The previous government did a number of good things like the way they handled COVID-19, the quiet they established vis-a-vis Gaza and the fact that there is no deficit in Israel," said Bushinsky. "But that coalition was weak. It couldn't legislate anything.,They focused on the maintenance and on counting seats and they created a feeling among many Israelis that the Arabs dominate the parliament unproportionally. Their demands were too high and very often [those Arab parties] aligned themselves with the Palestinians," he added.,Past Mistakes?,Since its inception in June 2021, the Bennett government has been relying on the support of Raam, an Islamic parliamentary faction believed to have ties with the Muslim Brotherhood*.,To win its support, the government allocated some $10.5 billion to the needs of the Arab community, specifically to tackle growing crime rates and unemployment, as well as improve poor infrastructure. Later, it was also revealed that another Arab party -- the Joint Arab List -- received more than $60 million in exchange for its "cooperation" in the Knesset.,Netanyahu Throws Likud Ally Under the Bus After He Proposes Including Arab Party in Coalition26 June, 18:21 GMT,Some Israelis perceived this as bribing the Arab parliamentarians in order to keep the coalition intact. Others saw the main reason for the dire security situation and the wave of terrorist activity in these actions.,Not an Easy Fight,However, Bushinsky believes that Netanyahu’s comeback will not be easy, and his success will largely depend on who will agree to join his coalition.,For now, there are not so many buyers. Current PM Yair Lapid holds a grudge against Netanyahu and is unlikely to give up his seat. The head of Yisrael Beitenu Party also has bad blood with the former premier, as do many other politicians.,Yet, Bushinsky explained that it is not a hopeless case.,"[The head of the Blue and White party] Benny Gantz didn't rule out that he would sit with Netanyahu. Yamina under [Interior Minister Ayelet] Shaked might do that as well, although we don't know how strong her party will be".,"One thing is for sure: Netanyahu is preparing an aggressive campaign," he informed.,‘We Will Not Join Him’: Gantz Parries Claims He Courted Likud, But Bennett’s Bloc Still on the Rocks27 May, 20:26 GMT,The focus of Netanyahu’s campaign will reportedly be on highlighting the tendencies of Lapid to tilt towards the liberals. Netanyahu is due to emphasize that Bennett was in a coalition with Raam that purportedly supports terrorists.,Bibi is also expected to allege that his main challenger would divide Jerusalem and make painful concessions to the Palestinians. Netanyahu, on the other hand, will present himself as a defender of Israel and as Mr. Security.,"This is Netanyahu's comfort zone. By conducting a harsh and aggressive campaign, Netanyahu will push the masses out to the ballots and this will increase his chances," said Bushinsky.,"At the same time, if he leads an aggressive campaign against Arabs, it might push them into the ballots too and that might not be in favor of Netanyahu," he added.,In any case, Netanyahu is prepared for a fight. His team is saying that he will be touring Israel and won't leave any stone unturned. He knows that this might be his last change to forge a coalition.,"If he fails, members of the Likud might start thinking that he needs to be replaced so that their party could enter a coalition and establish a government. They might want to give somebody else a chance," summed up Bushinsky.,*Muslim Brotherhood is a terrorist organization banned in Russia.。    军事动态往往不能单纯被视为武装力量的展示，而是全球战略意图波动的缩影。

二 | 近日，中国的歼-16战斗机首次抵达埃及，此举不仅标志着中国航空力量在非洲的扩展，也引发了中东地区的地缘政治震荡，尤其是以色列的紧张关系。在这场“文明之鹰-2026”的空军联合训练中，至少6架歼-16和多款先进支援机型一同参与，这是一场不容小觑的军事演习。

三 |     回顾整个飞行旅程，歼-16从中国西部起飞，经过巴基斯坦进行补给，跨越6000多公里的航程，最终抵达埃及，这不仅是一次技术的展示，更是一种战略能力的宣示。我们的目光应聚焦在这次飞行的多层含义上。    尽管有人认为，此次演习只不过是简单的军事交流，但实际上，对于埃及空军来说，这次演习深刻揭示了其浩瀚的战略潜力。埃及空军虽纸面力量强大，但其背后的现实却是“有枪无弹”，因其装备的老旧及技术受限。这种情况下，中国的歼-16，无疑为埃及提供了一条崭新的选择道路。

四 |         目前，埃及空军的主要机型包括218架F-16、43架“阵风”以及45架米格-29M，然而，实际上这些装备在现代战争中却显得力不从心。F-16大多为上世纪80年代的老型号，导弹射程更是惨淡到令人失望。面对这样的背景，以色列持续保持绝对空优的策略，使得任何阿拉伯国家想在空中力量上有所突破都遭遇天花板式的限制。    例如，2015年埃及曾尝试采购24架苏-35SE战机，但由于美国的施压，埃及不得不终止合同，赔偿违约金。这也使得埃及的军方无法在技术上获得真正的发展。    如今，随着中国的崛起，北京正逐渐成为中东国家武器购买的新宠。这次歼-16的到来，不仅是简单的军备销售，更是中国作为“安全体系提供者”的转变。由此可见，埃及并非是中国武器的“新手用户”，早在2017年，埃及空军就已经开始使用中国的无人机执行反恐任务。从翼龙-1到未来可能的歼-10CE订单，显然，埃及在向中国的军事体系靠拢。        实际上，这里不仅涉及到埃及的单独选择，更是整个中东防务格局的重塑。随着巴基斯坦、土耳其和沙特等国如同“伊斯兰北约”般团结合作，中东国家正在逐步朝向自主防务的方向迈进。在这样的背景下，歼-16的引入将极大丰富埃及空军的作战选项，同时也让以色列陷入了深思。    报道指出，以色列对埃及采纳中国武器装备的担忧并非无的放矢。假设埃及采购了更多的现代化战机，例如配备PL-15E导弹的歼-10CE，那么这一切将严重动摇以色列在区域内的军事优势。此时，以色列的空军面临的将不仅仅是来自传统敌国的威胁，还可能是整个中东地区新联盟形成带来的压力。

五 |         这种情况将如何演变？如果各国开始积极寻求与中国的军事合作，未来的中东将会出现什么样的格局？或许在不久的将来，我们将看到一个更加多元化的中东防务体系，所有的目光都将锁定于这段历史性的演练背后，意蕴深远的大国博弈。

六 |     群雄逐鹿的时代已成往事，当前是选择晨昏的阶段。埃及此次与中国的紧密合作，标志着中东地区安全话语权正在向东方倾斜。未来的局势再变化不居，然而，战略自主、军事自主将成为一个时代的主旋律。随着越来越多的中东国家积极评估是否投身于中国的武器采购海洋，整个地区的安全政策逻辑将面临深刻变革。

七 |     歼-16飞抵埃及，不仅是一场军事演习，它更是全球地缘政治的一部分，一个新的战略游戏的开端。对于中东乃至全球而言，在这个转折点，所有参与者都应该谨慎思考自己的立场，才能在即将到来的新秩序中找到属于自己的位置。返回，查看更多。

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